Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!
Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company.
There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing.
Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla.
In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.
And Toyota has a market cap that is 6 times lower than Tesla.
It would take tesla a gargantuan effort to match Toyota's numbers and margins, and if it matched it...it would be a disaster for Tesla's stock.
Hell, Tesla makes much less money than Mercedes Benz and with a smaller margin..
Mercedes has 60% more revenue and twice the net income. Yet, Tesla is valued around 40 times Mercedes-Benz.
Tesla *must* pivot away from cars and make it a side business or sooner or later that stuff is crashing, and it will crash fast and hard.
Musk understands that, which is why he focusing on robo taxis and robots. It's the only way to sell Tesla to naive investors.
And then, they will pivot away from humanoid robots. To justifying the valuation they have already pivoted from electric cars company to self-driving taxis company, without delivering self-driving taxis, they are now pivoting to robots, before delivering the robots they will pivot to the next shinny thing. Maybe Pivot is the real Tesla product that justifies the crazy valuation.
> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company.
I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality.
I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire.
I saw a pretty convincing argument that Musk fried his brain with ketamine, written by a former ketamine abuser who saw a lot of familiar behavior. I don't think Musk is the same guy now that he was in the early days.
Sounds like a reach. Many people just loved the stuff he was doing and didn't really know much about him as a person. When a more complete picture (specifically his politics) emerged, and people decided they really didn't like the person, they had to resolve their cognitive dissonance by finding reasons they were right then and right now, instead of admitting they projected the person they imagined onto the person they really didn't know. Tech enthusiasts just never imagined that a guy doing so many cool things could turn out to be a right-winger.
Well one major change to his politics was his view on climate change. He also supported Obama in both elections, and had the self-control to keep pretty quiet about issues unrelated to his business.
It says it's quite easy for ketamine use to get out of control without the users noticing, that they're are able to work effectively despite that, and that they tend to develop radically different and delusional beliefs. Given that Elon has admitted to self-administering ketamine, I don't think the idea should be dismissed.
It’d be best for everyone outside of the company but he and the board would be buried in lawsuits for the rest of their lives. They have a strong personal interest in avoiding that even if it’s well-deserved based on sober data analysis, so they’re pushing the Hail Mary play trying to jump into a bigger new market which they haven’t already ceded to the competition.
We need to bring back the concept of seppuku for situations like that. "We have to lie more because it would be too painful to admit our lies" should be a moment that makes any leader question where they have been, where they are, where they're going, and all of their motivations and reasoning. It should be the sort of "what have I done?" moment that sends a person to a monastery, an asylum, or the grave.
They also reported tiny profits that are just slightly above what they get in as subsidies. P/E compared to other similar companies is also through the roof.
I dislike Tesla/Elon but would prefer the reality where they innovate until their worth matches their current price. I suspect yours is more likely to happen.
That is why all the crazy promises and moves, hyping X.ai, Robotaxis, Optimus, Data centers in space. If you are constantly promising the future and some radical moves, the optimistic investors believe him and he can keep increasing the "potential future valuation".
But when you look at it:
- X.ai is basically getting into the race by throwing money at the problem and using your name to get funding in a hyped industry.
- Do a buyout of your own company with it, get access to data that you restricted to everyone else.
- Merge it with SpaceX for "datacenters in space", do an IPO for a huge valuation
- Probably merge it with Tesla, overhype everything
- As the humanoid, AI and space industry grows, so will the valuation just because of the market growth, not necessarily because of great/revolutionary products
At that point, nobody can even consider what the valuation is, as it is a mishmash of promises, fudged numbers, real numbers, potential numbers, contracts, hype and everything else. It allows moving financials around and tuning things to get him his 1T package and hype things even more.
I mean congrats to Elon, just by overhyping his products he shifts the timeline narrative more towards techno-optimism and earns himself more money. The financial shenanigans to follow in the next few years will be an interesting period for future financial archeologists.
The best part of all of this is given their history, and the state of robotaxies as a whole, they will fail, and Tesla will crash. And it'll be a great day. The hype and obscene over valuation of them is utterly moronic.
Look how much longer, and more experience Waymo has and they still have multiple issues a week popping up online, and thats with running them in a very small well mapped and planned out area. Musk wants robo taxies globally, that's just not happening, not any time soon and certainly not by the 10 year limit for him to get his trillion dollar bonus from Tesla, which is the only reason he's pushing so hard to make it happen.
There are plenty of people all around the world who know what heinous things he did. He won’t ever be mourned, and hopefully we never see the likes of him again
I ran a miab for about 5 years, maybe around 2018, I also actively tried to do extra things that would improve delivery, including registering postmaster accounts on the various postmaster whitelist tools etc in order to increase the chances my mail would be delivered.
Unfortunately if you host your mail on linode/digital ocean, you will eventually be blocked, and mst of your email will end up in spam folders.
This year after 13 years of running my own mail services, I finally gave up, I was sending emails and then sending followup “did you get my email” messages from gmail
It's unlikely that either Feinstein or McConnell will be reelected, regardless of when the election is held. The scale of their health effects weren't known at their last election.
Compared to paying enough attention to all of our myriad elected officials, to know which ones of them are up to what kinds of crooked dealings...having to vote on a Tuesday is a "...and remember to staple your 47-part filled-out-by-hand paper tax filing in the upper-left corner before mailing it to the IRS" sort of detail.
I think when the parent wrote "us" they were referring to humanity. My doormat has a non-zero chance of killing me, but zero chance of killing humanity, for example.
I’m conflicted on this one, it has both saved me, and also almost caused a real crash… it’s save me twice when reversing, once a guy pulled in behind me after I had checked mirrors and started reversing, and the auto brake engaged and saved a collision… but it has also jammed the brakes on when driving down the street because it detected an obstacle that was fixed, and I was driving around it comfortably
