Tesla is selling a $10k hardware package, with the promise that eventually they'll have the software to match. Musk makes lots of optimistic predictions which are not hard deadlines. There is no actual guaranteed timeline in the terms that come along with the FSD package, AFAIK. It is made explicit that the software required to utilize the hardware you are purchasing is not ready yet.
And what are the chances that the $5k hardware packages they sold in 2016 are up to the challenge, when these $10k hardware packages they have are a few orders of magnitude faster?
Same thing come 2026: Tesla will almost surely have new hardware for that time, and I'm willing to bet that FSD still will be a vaporware product and incomplete. If it happened over the past 5 years, history tends to repeat and I can make the same bet will happen in 5 years into the future.
To me, the question is: is the technology getting better over time? And from what I've seen I would answer that question with a resounding yes.